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Slovan Ljubljana vs Beltinci — 2. SNL 2019

Slovan Ljubljana
Slovan Ljubljana
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Beltinci
Beltinci
M. Rantasa 50'
S. Akinremi 18'
3/7/20262. SNL2. SNL · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slovan Ljubljana36%
×Draw26%
Beltinci39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Ljubljana
1.32
Beltinci
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 94 away

creates per match

Slovan Ljubljana
1.20
Beltinci
1.34

allows per match

Slovan Ljubljana
1.43
Beltinci
1.44

finishing

Slovan Ljubljana+0.00on par
Beltinci+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Ljubljana ↓

Beltinci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slovan Ljubljana or draw
61%
Slovan Ljubljana or Beltinci
74%
Draw or Beltinci
64%

Winning margin

Slovan Ljubljana wins by 2+
16%
Beltinci wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Slovan Ljubljana 1+ goals
73%
Slovan Ljubljana 2+ goals
38%
Slovan Ljubljana 3+ goals
15%
Beltinci 1+ goals
75%
Beltinci 2+ goals
40%
Beltinci 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Slovan Ljubljana (draw refunded)
48%
Beltinci (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Ljubljana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Beltinci away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.44 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Ljubljana attack 1.20 + Beltinci defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Beltinci attack 1.34 + Slovan Ljubljana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slovan Ljubljana scores more
36%
level
26%
Beltinci scores more
39%

Beltinci at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beltinci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
S. Akinremi
50'
M. Rantasa
Slovan
Beltinci
L. Žinko
Manager: L. Žinko
S. Dvoršak
Manager: S. Dvoršak

2. SNL: Slovan Ljubljana 0–2 Beltinci

Beltinci beat Slovan Ljubljana 2-0 in 2. SNL on March 7, 2026.

Goals: S. Akinremi (18'), M. Rantasa (50').