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Beltinci vs Slovan Ljubljana — 2. SNL 2019

Beltinci
Beltinci
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Ljubljana
Slovan Ljubljana
Unknown 72'
8/23/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 3Športni park Beltinci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beltinci47%
×Draw25%
Slovan Ljubljana27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beltinci
1.58
Slovan Ljubljana
1.14

Beltinci creates 39% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 30 away

creates per match

Beltinci
1.57
Slovan Ljubljana
1.00

allows per match

Beltinci
1.27
Slovan Ljubljana
1.60

finishing

Beltinci+0.00on par
Slovan Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beltinci ↓

Slovan Ljubljana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Beltinci or draw
73%
Beltinci or Slovan Ljubljana
75%
Draw or Slovan Ljubljana
53%

Winning margin

Beltinci wins by 2+
24%
Slovan Ljubljana wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Beltinci 1+ goals
79%
Beltinci 2+ goals
47%
Beltinci 3+ goals
21%
Slovan Ljubljana 1+ goals
68%
Slovan Ljubljana 2+ goals
32%
Slovan Ljubljana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Beltinci (draw refunded)
63%
Slovan Ljubljana (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beltinci at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

Slovan Ljubljana away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beltinci attack 1.57 + Slovan Ljubljana defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Slovan Ljubljana attack 1.00 + Beltinci defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beltinci scores more
47%
level
25%
Slovan Ljubljana scores more
27%

Beltinci at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Beltinci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
Beltinci
Slovan
S. Dvoršak
Manager: S. Dvoršak
L. Žinko
Manager: L. Žinko

2. SNL: Beltinci 0–0 Slovan Ljubljana

Beltinci and Slovan Ljubljana drew 0-0 in 2. SNL on August 23, 2025.

Goals: ? (72').

The match was played at Športni park Beltinci in Beltinci.