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Slovan Liberec W vs Viktoria Plzeň W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Slovan Liberec W
Slovan Liberec W
FT
0 – 0
Viktoria Plzeň W
Viktoria Plzeň W
10/6/20241. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 7Stadion u Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Slovan Liberec W53%
×Draw20%
Viktoria Plzeň W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec W
2.23
Viktoria Plzeň W
1.56

Slovan Liberec W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec W
1.83
Viktoria Plzeň W
1.28

allows per match

Slovan Liberec W
1.83
Viktoria Plzeň W
2.63

finishing

Slovan Liberec W+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec W ↓

Viktoria Plzeň W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec W or draw
73%
Slovan Liberec W or Viktoria Plzeň W
80%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň W
47%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec W wins by 2+
32%
Viktoria Plzeň W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec W 1+ goals
89%
Slovan Liberec W 2+ goals
65%
Slovan Liberec W 3+ goals
38%
Viktoria Plzeň W 1+ goals
79%
Viktoria Plzeň W 2+ goals
46%
Viktoria Plzeň W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec W (draw refunded)
66%
Viktoria Plzeň W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 60 matches

Viktoria Plzeň W away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.63 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec W attack 1.83 + Viktoria Plzeň W defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.23

Viktoria Plzeň W attack 1.28 + Slovan Liberec W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slovan Liberec W scores more
53%
level
20%
Viktoria Plzeň W scores more
27%

Slovan Liberec W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slovan Liberec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Slovan Liberec W 0–0 Viktoria Plzeň W

Slovan Liberec W and Viktoria Plzeň W drew 0-0 in 1. Liga Women on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion u Nisy in Liberec.