Slovan Liberec W 4–0 Pardubice W: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pardubice W

A. Svibkova 68'

K. Dinh Thanhova 55'

R. Hlouchova 48', 5'

9/2/2023

1. Liga Women · Round 3Stadion Donín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Slovan Liberec W66%

×Draw16%

Pardubice W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Liberec WExpected goals in this matchPardubice W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

1.53

Slovan Liberec W

2.98

Pardubice W

1.53

Slovan Liberec W creates 95% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 40 away

1.83

creates per match

1.23

1.83

allows per match

4.13

creates per match

Slovan Liberec W

1.83

Pardubice W

1.23

allows per match

Slovan Liberec W

1.83

Pardubice W

4.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Liberec W+0.00on par

Pardubice W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec W ↓

Pardubice W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec W or draw

82%

Slovan Liberec W or Pardubice W

84%

Draw or Pardubice W

34%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec W wins by 2+

46%

Pardubice W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec W 1+ goals

95%

Slovan Liberec W 2+ goals

79%

Slovan Liberec W 3+ goals

56%

Pardubice W 1+ goals

78%

Pardubice W 2+ goals

45%

Pardubice W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec W (draw refunded)

79%

Pardubice W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 60 matches

Pardubice W away — creates 1.23, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec W attack 1.83 + Pardubice W defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.98

Pardubice W attack 1.23 + Slovan Liberec W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Slovan Liberec W scores more

66%

level

16%

Pardubice W scores more

18%

Slovan Liberec W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Slovan Liberec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

R. Hlouchova

46'

T. Potuckova← T. Potuckova

46'

B. Ninczova← B. Ninczova

48'

R. Hlouchova

55'

K. Dinh Thanhova

61'

V. Susolova← V. Susolova

61'

V. Cerna← V. Cerna

61'

K. Buresova← K. Buresova

62'

B. Ninczova

68'

A. Svibkova

69'

A. Buryanova← A. Buryanova

69'

S. Brazdova← S. Brazdova

75'

V. Nemcova← V. Nemcova

75'

A. Kruzikova← A. Kruzikova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff