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Pardubice W vs Slovan Liberec W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Pardubice W
Pardubice W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Liberec W
Slovan Liberec W
D. Tenkratova 79'
K. Duchackova 56'
11/12/20231. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 10Ohrazenice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Pardubice W21%
×Draw19%
Slovan Liberec W60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice W
1.42
Slovan Liberec W
2.47

Slovan Liberec W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 60 away

creates per match

Pardubice W
0.72
Slovan Liberec W
1.67

allows per match

Pardubice W
3.27
Slovan Liberec W
2.12

finishing

Pardubice W+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice W ↓

Slovan Liberec W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Pardubice W or draw
40%
Pardubice W or Slovan Liberec W
81%
Draw or Slovan Liberec W
79%

Winning margin

Pardubice W wins by 2+
9%
Slovan Liberec W wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Pardubice W 1+ goals
76%
Pardubice W 2+ goals
41%
Pardubice W 3+ goals
17%
Slovan Liberec W 1+ goals
91%
Slovan Liberec W 2+ goals
70%
Slovan Liberec W 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Pardubice W (draw refunded)
26%
Slovan Liberec W (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice W at home — creates 0.72, concedes 3.27 · 40 matches

Slovan Liberec W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice W attack 0.72 + Slovan Liberec W defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.42

Slovan Liberec W attack 1.67 + Pardubice W defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pardubice W scores more
21%
level
19%
Slovan Liberec W scores more
60%

Slovan Liberec W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slovan Liberec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
T. Potuckova
33'
S. Brazdova
41'
N. Sovakova
46'
A. Svibkova← A. Svibkova
56'
K. Duchackova
60'
P. Hrobska← P. Hrobska
60'
V. Hylova← V. Hylova
61'
M. Harvilova← M. Harvilova
64'
T. Potuckova
68'
K. Dinh Thanhova← K. Dinh Thanhova
71'
T. Cerna
74'
K. Holcova← K. Holcova
74'
S. Novotna← S. Novotna
79'
D. Tenkratova
80'
M. Friedrichova← M. Friedrichova
82'
S. Novotna
83'
M. Kostalova← M. Kostalova
83'
M. Mastnikova← M. Mastnikova
89'
V. Hylova
90+3'
K. Holcova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Pardubice W 0–2 Slovan Liberec W

Slovan Liberec W beat Pardubice W 2-0 in 1. Liga Women on November 12, 2023.

Goals: K. Duchackova (56'), D. Tenkratova (79').

The match was played at Ohrazenice UMT in Pardubice.