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Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
2/10/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 20Stadion u Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Slovan Liberec44%
×Draw26%
Sigma Olomouc30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec
1.48
Sigma Olomouc
1.18

Slovan Liberec creates 25% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 119 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec
1.58
Sigma Olomouc
1.26

allows per match

Slovan Liberec
1.09
Sigma Olomouc
1.37

finishing

Slovan Liberec+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw
70%
Slovan Liberec or Sigma Olomouc
74%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc
56%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
22%
Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
77%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
43%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
19%
Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
69%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
33%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
59%
Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 117 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 1.58 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more
44%
level
26%
Sigma Olomouc scores more
30%

Slovan Liberec at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slovan Liberec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc

Slovan Liberec beat Sigma Olomouc 2-0 in Czech Liga on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion u Nisy in Liberec.