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Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec — Czech Liga 2019

Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
8/2/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 3Andruv stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Sigma Olomouc42%
×Draw26%
Slovan Liberec32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc
1.40
Slovan Liberec
1.19

Sigma Olomouc creates 18% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 118 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.38
Slovan Liberec
1.14

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.24
Slovan Liberec
1.43

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

Slovan Liberec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw
68%
Sigma Olomouc or Slovan Liberec
74%
Draw or Slovan Liberec
58%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
20%
Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
75%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
41%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
17%
Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
70%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
33%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
57%
Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.38 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Slovan Liberec attack 1.14 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more
42%
level
26%
Slovan Liberec scores more
32%

Sigma Olomouc at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec

Sigma Olomouc beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 in Czech Liga on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Andruv stadion in Olomouc.