Slovan Liberec 4–1 Puskas Academy: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Puskas Academy

D. Visinsky 64'

M. Pourzitidis 62'

L. Tupta 42' (pen)

L. Kulenovic 9'

J. Plsek 7'

7/12/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Slovan Liberec48%

×Draw23%

Puskas Academy29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LiberecExpected goals in this matchPuskas Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.36

Slovan Liberec

1.82

Puskas Academy

1.36

Slovan Liberec creates 34% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

2.65

creates per match

1.57

1.15

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Slovan Liberec

2.65

Puskas Academy

1.57

allows per match

Slovan Liberec

1.15

Puskas Academy

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Liberec+0.00on par

Puskas Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

Puskas Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw

71%

Slovan Liberec or Puskas Academy

77%

Draw or Puskas Academy

52%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

26%

Puskas Academy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

84%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

54%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

27%

Puskas Academy 1+ goals

74%

Puskas Academy 2+ goals

39%

Puskas Academy 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

63%

Puskas Academy (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Puskas Academy away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 2.65 + Puskas Academy defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Puskas Academy attack 1.57 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more

48%

level

23%

Puskas Academy scores more

29%

Slovan Liberec at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Slovan Liberec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. Plsek

9'

L. Kulenovic

42'

L. TuptaPenalty

46'

D. Plechaty← F. Prebsl

46'

A. Ghali← D. Preisler

56'

G. Komaromi

62'

M. Pourzitidis

63'

F. Horsky← F. Horsky

63'

M. Pourzitidis← J. Mikula

64'

D. Visinsky

68'

C. Frydek← M. Lexa

Statistics

SlovanPuskas

Overview

2Corners2