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Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice — Czech Liga 2019

Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
České Budějovice
České Budějovice
11/5/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 14Stadion u Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Slovan Liberec56%
×Draw23%
České Budějovice21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec
1.82
České Budějovice
1.04

Slovan Liberec creates 75% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 102 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec
1.58
České Budějovice
0.98

allows per match

Slovan Liberec
1.09
České Budějovice
2.07

finishing

Slovan Liberec+0.00on par
České Budějovice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

České Budějovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw
79%
Slovan Liberec or České Budějovice
77%
Draw or České Budějovice
44%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
32%
České Budějovice wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
84%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
54%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
27%
České Budějovice 1+ goals
65%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
28%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
72%
České Budějovice (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 117 matches

České Budějovice away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 1.58 + České Budějovice defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.82

České Budějovice attack 0.98 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more
56%
level
23%
České Budějovice scores more
21%

Slovan Liberec at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Slovan Liberec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice

Slovan Liberec beat České Budějovice 1-0 in Czech Liga on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion u Nisy in Liberec.