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České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec — Czech Liga 2019

České Budějovice
České Budějovice
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
4/13/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 28Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

České Budějovice36%
×Draw26%
Slovan Liberec37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice
1.31
Slovan Liberec
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 118 away

creates per match

České Budějovice
1.20
Slovan Liberec
1.14

allows per match

České Budějovice
1.53
Slovan Liberec
1.43

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Slovan Liberec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw
63%
České Budějovice or Slovan Liberec
74%
Draw or Slovan Liberec
64%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+
16%
Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals
73%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
38%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
14%
Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
74%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
38%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)
49%
Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.20 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Slovan Liberec attack 1.14 + České Budějovice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

České Budějovice scores more
36%
level
26%
Slovan Liberec scores more
37%

Slovan Liberec at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Slovan Liberec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: České Budějovice 3–2 Slovan Liberec

České Budějovice beat Slovan Liberec 3-2 in Czech Liga on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Ceské Budejovice.