Slovan Liberec 1–0 Bohemians 1905: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bohemians 1905

5/11/2025

Czech Liga · Middle Play-offs - Semi-finalsStadion u Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Slovan Liberec38%

×Draw28%

Bohemians 190535%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LiberecExpected goals in this matchBohemians 1905

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.17

Slovan Liberec

1.23

Bohemians 1905

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

0.90

creates per match

1.21

1.12

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Slovan Liberec

0.90

Bohemians 1905

1.21

allows per match

Slovan Liberec

1.12

Bohemians 1905

1.55

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Slovan Liberec-0.12scores less

Bohemians 1905-0.57scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

Bohemians 1905 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw

65%

Slovan Liberec or Bohemians 1905

72%

Draw or Bohemians 1905

62%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

16%

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

71%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

35%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

13%

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals

69%

Bohemians 1905 2+ goals

33%

Bohemians 1905 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

52%

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 0.90 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.21 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more

38%

level

28%

Bohemians 1905 scores more

35%

Slovan Liberec at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Slovan Liberec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff