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Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec — Czech Liga 2019

Bohemians 1905
Bohemians 1905
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
2/23/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 23Stadion Ďolíček

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bohemians 190548%
×Draw25%
Slovan Liberec27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians 1905
1.63
Slovan Liberec
1.15

Bohemians 1905 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bohemians 1905
1.42
Slovan Liberec
0.89

allows per match

Bohemians 1905
1.40
Slovan Liberec
1.84

finishing

Bohemians 1905-0.54scores less
Slovan Liberec+0.21scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 ↓

Slovan Liberec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 or draw
73%
Bohemians 1905 or Slovan Liberec
75%
Draw or Slovan Liberec
52%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+
25%
Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals
80%
Bohemians 1905 2+ goals
48%
Bohemians 1905 3+ goals
22%
Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
68%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
32%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)
64%
Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.40 · 16 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.84 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.42 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.63

Slovan Liberec attack 0.89 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bohemians 1905 scores more
48%
level
25%
Slovan Liberec scores more
27%

Bohemians 1905 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec

Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec drew 0-0 in Czech Liga on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Ďolíček in Praha.