Slovan Liberec 1–0 Baník Ostrava: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baník Ostrava

E. Mahmic 49'

2/15/2026

Czech Liga · Round 22Stadion U Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Slovan Liberec51%

×Draw25%

Baník Ostrava24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LiberecExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.02

Slovan Liberec

1.59

Baník Ostrava

1.02

Slovan Liberec creates 56% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

1.38

creates per match

1.11

0.94

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Slovan Liberec

1.38

Baník Ostrava

1.11

allows per match

Slovan Liberec

0.94

Baník Ostrava

1.80

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Slovan Liberec+0.02on par

Baník Ostrava-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

Baník Ostrava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw

76%

Slovan Liberec or Baník Ostrava

75%

Draw or Baník Ostrava

49%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

26%

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

80%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

47%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

21%

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

64%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

27%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

68%

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.94 · 25 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.80 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 1.38 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59

Baník Ostrava attack 1.11 + Slovan Liberec defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more

51%

level

25%

Baník Ostrava scores more

24%

Slovan Liberec at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slovan Liberec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

T. Koubek

Slovan Liberec · G

8.2

Match Events

28'

Abdallah Gning

33'

L. Masopust← J. Mikula

37'

David Planka

49'

E. Mahmic↳ J. Kozeluh

52'

Ermin MahmicGoal confirmed

63'

65'

67'

70'

70'

70'

72'

77'

77'

82'

82'

82'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlovanBaník

Overview

44%Possession56%

15Total Shots12

1.35Expected Goals (xG)0.97

5Corners3

13Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots12

7On Target3

4Off Target6

4Blocked3

8Inside Box8

7Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

321Total Passes414

214Accurate Passes296

67%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

0.94Goals Prevented0.94

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

4Offsides5

Match Recap: Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava

Slovan Liberec beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 in Czech Liga on February 15, 2026.

Goals: E. Mahmic (49').

Baník Ostrava controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadion U Nisy in Liberec.

Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava