Baník Ostrava 0–2 Slovan Liberec: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Slovan Liberec

E. Mahmic 19'

L. Masek 2'

9/13/2025

Czech Liga · Round 8Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Baník Ostrava47%

×Draw24%

Slovan Liberec28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník OstravaExpected goals in this matchSlovan Liberec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.23

Baník Ostrava

1.66

Slovan Liberec

1.23

Baník Ostrava creates 35% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

1.61

creates per match

1.26

1.21

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Baník Ostrava

1.61

Slovan Liberec

1.26

allows per match

Baník Ostrava

1.21

Slovan Liberec

1.71

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava-0.16scores less

Slovan Liberec+0.06on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

Slovan Liberec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw

72%

Baník Ostrava or Slovan Liberec

76%

Draw or Slovan Liberec

53%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

25%

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

81%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

49%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

23%

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

71%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

35%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

63%

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.21 · 20 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.71 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 1.61 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Slovan Liberec attack 1.26 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more

47%

level

24%

Slovan Liberec scores more

28%

Baník Ostrava at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

E. Mahmic

Slovan Liberec · M

8.2

Match Events

2'

19'

26'

42'

43'

46'

46'

J. Pira← T. Zlatohlavek

60'

Jan Mikula

61'

F. Spatenka← P. Hodous

61'

V. Stransky← E. Mahmic

61'

65'

67'

67'

76'

78'

82'

85'

A. Munksgaard← M. Rusnak

90+2'

Dennis Owusu

90+2'

Dennis Owusu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BaníkSlovan

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots16

6Corners3

8Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots16

1On Target4

10Off Target5

1Blocked7

10Inside Box13

2Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

345Total Passes348

268Accurate Passes263

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4