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Slovan Liberec U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec — 1. Liga U19 2020

Slovan Liberec U19
Slovan Liberec U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
5/18/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 27Umělá tráva Mestský stadion v Ustí nad Labem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Slovan Liberec U1933%
×Draw21%
Jindřichův Hradec46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec U19
1.82
Jindřichův Hradec
2.16

Jindřichův Hradec creates 19% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 64 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec U19
2.20
Jindřichův Hradec
2.13

allows per match

Slovan Liberec U19
2.18
Jindřichův Hradec
1.44

finishing

Slovan Liberec U19+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec U19 ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec U19 or draw
54%
Slovan Liberec U19 or Jindřichův Hradec
79%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
67%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec U19 wins by 2+
17%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec U19 1+ goals
84%
Slovan Liberec U19 2+ goals
54%
Slovan Liberec U19 3+ goals
27%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
88%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
63%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec U19 (draw refunded)
42%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec U19 attack 2.20 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.82

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.13 + Slovan Liberec U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slovan Liberec U19 scores more
33%
level
21%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
46%

Jindřichův Hradec at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Slovan Liberec U19 2–2 Jindřichův Hradec

Slovan Liberec U19 and Jindřichův Hradec drew 2-2 in 1. Liga U19 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Umělá tráva Mestský stadion v Ustí nad Labem in Ústí nad Labem.