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Jindřichův Hradec vs Slovan Liberec U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Slovan Liberec U19
Slovan Liberec U19
3/8/20251. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 16Vladivostocká UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec63%
×Draw19%
Slovan Liberec U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
2.42
Slovan Liberec U19
1.24

Jindřichův Hradec creates 95% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.36
Slovan Liberec U19
1.31

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.17
Slovan Liberec U19
2.47

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Slovan Liberec U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
82%
Jindřichův Hradec or Slovan Liberec U19
81%
Draw or Slovan Liberec U19
37%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
41%
Slovan Liberec U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
91%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
69%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
43%
Slovan Liberec U19 1+ goals
71%
Slovan Liberec U19 2+ goals
35%
Slovan Liberec U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
77%
Slovan Liberec U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Slovan Liberec U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Slovan Liberec U19 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.42

Slovan Liberec U19 attack 1.31 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
63%
level
19%
Slovan Liberec U19 scores more
18%

Jindřichův Hradec at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Jindřichův Hradec 2–0 Slovan Liberec U19

Jindřichův Hradec beat Slovan Liberec U19 2-0 in 1. Liga U19 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Vladivostocká UMT in Praha.