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Slovan Liberec U19 vs Frýdek-Místek U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Slovan Liberec U19
Slovan Liberec U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Frýdek-Místek U19
Frýdek-Místek U19
M. Strnad 30'
D. Nemec 67'
J. Jedlicka 25'
10/26/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 13Umělá tráva Mestský stadion v Ustí nad Labem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slovan Liberec U1959%
×Draw19%
Frýdek-Místek U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec U19
2.54
Frýdek-Místek U19
1.53

Slovan Liberec U19 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec U19
2.20
Frýdek-Místek U19
0.87

allows per match

Slovan Liberec U19
2.18
Frýdek-Místek U19
2.87

finishing

Slovan Liberec U19+0.00on par
Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec U19 ↓

Frýdek-Místek U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec U19 or draw
78%
Slovan Liberec U19 or Frýdek-Místek U19
81%
Draw or Frýdek-Místek U19
41%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec U19 wins by 2+
38%
Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec U19 1+ goals
92%
Slovan Liberec U19 2+ goals
72%
Slovan Liberec U19 3+ goals
46%
Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals
78%
Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals
45%
Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

Frýdek-Místek U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec U19 attack 2.20 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.54

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 0.87 + Slovan Liberec U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Slovan Liberec U19 scores more
59%
level
19%
Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more
22%

Slovan Liberec U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Slovan Liberec U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
J. Jedlicka
30'
M. Strnad
67'
D. Nemec

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Slovan Liberec U19 1–2 Frýdek-Místek U19

Frýdek-Místek U19 beat Slovan Liberec U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on October 26, 2023.

Goals: J. Jedlicka (25'), M. Strnad (30'), D. Nemec (67').

The match was played at Umělá tráva Mestský stadion v Ustí nad Labem in Ústí nad Labem.