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Frýdek-Místek U19 vs Slovan Liberec U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Frýdek-Místek U19
Frýdek-Místek U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slovan Liberec U19
Slovan Liberec U19
D. Nemec 16'
J. Krizek 57' (OG)
5/29/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 28Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frýdek-Místek U1950%
×Draw23%
Slovan Liberec U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.77
Slovan Liberec U19
1.22

Frýdek-Místek U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.07
Slovan Liberec U19
1.31

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.13
Slovan Liberec U19
2.47

finishing

Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek U19 ↓

Slovan Liberec U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek U19 or draw
74%
Frýdek-Místek U19 or Slovan Liberec U19
77%
Draw or Slovan Liberec U19
50%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+
27%
Slovan Liberec U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals
83%
Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals
53%
Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals
26%
Slovan Liberec U19 1+ goals
70%
Slovan Liberec U19 2+ goals
34%
Slovan Liberec U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Slovan Liberec U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Slovan Liberec U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 1.07 + Slovan Liberec U19 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.77

Slovan Liberec U19 attack 1.31 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more
50%
level
23%
Slovan Liberec U19 scores more
26%

Frýdek-Místek U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
D. Nemec
57'
J. KrizekOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frýdek-Místek U19 vs Slovan Liberec U19

Frýdek-Místek U19 and Slovan Liberec U19 drew 1-1 in 1. Liga U19 on May 29, 2024.

Goals: D. Nemec (16'), J. Krizek (57' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion Stovky in Frýdek-Místek.