Slovan Liberec II 2–1 Přepeře: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Přepeře

3/10/2024

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 17UMT Doubí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Slovan Liberec II52%

×Draw22%

Přepeře27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Liberec IIExpected goals in this matchPřepeře

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.40

Slovan Liberec II

2.02

Přepeře

1.40

Slovan Liberec II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 48 away

2.03

creates per match

1.35

1.45

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Slovan Liberec II

2.03

Přepeře

1.35

allows per match

Slovan Liberec II

1.45

Přepeře

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Liberec II+0.00on par

Přepeře+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec II ↓

Přepeře →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec II or draw

73%

Slovan Liberec II or Přepeře

78%

Draw or Přepeře

48%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec II wins by 2+

30%

Přepeře wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec II 1+ goals

87%

Slovan Liberec II 2+ goals

60%

Slovan Liberec II 3+ goals

33%

Přepeře 1+ goals

75%

Přepeře 2+ goals

41%

Přepeře 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec II (draw refunded)

66%

Přepeře (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Přepeře away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.02 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec II attack 2.03 + Přepeře defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.02

Přepeře attack 1.35 + Slovan Liberec II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slovan Liberec II scores more

52%

level

22%

Přepeře scores more

27%

Slovan Liberec II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slovan Liberec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff