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Přepeře vs Slovan Liberec II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Přepeře
Přepeře
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Slovan Liberec II
Slovan Liberec II
8/12/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 2Hřiště FK Přepeře

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Přepeře47%
×Draw22%
Slovan Liberec II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přepeře
1.90
Slovan Liberec II
1.48

Přepeře creates 28% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 66 away

creates per match

Přepeře
1.76
Slovan Liberec II
1.48

allows per match

Přepeře
1.49
Slovan Liberec II
2.05

finishing

Přepeře+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přepeře ↓

Slovan Liberec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Přepeře or draw
70%
Přepeře or Slovan Liberec II
78%
Draw or Slovan Liberec II
53%

Winning margin

Přepeře wins by 2+
26%
Slovan Liberec II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Přepeře 1+ goals
85%
Přepeře 2+ goals
56%
Přepeře 3+ goals
29%
Slovan Liberec II 1+ goals
77%
Slovan Liberec II 2+ goals
43%
Slovan Liberec II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Přepeře (draw refunded)
61%
Slovan Liberec II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přepeře at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Slovan Liberec II away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přepeře attack 1.76 + Slovan Liberec II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

Slovan Liberec II attack 1.48 + Přepeře defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Přepeře scores more
47%
level
22%
Slovan Liberec II scores more
30%

Přepeře at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Přepeře will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Přepeře vs Slovan Liberec II

Slovan Liberec II beat Přepeře 3-2 in 3. liga - CFL B on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště FK Přepeře in Přepeře.