Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slovan Levice vs Nové Zámky — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Levice
Slovan Levice
FT
3 – 2
Nové Zámky
Nové Zámky
9/15/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 17Futbalový štadión Levice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Slovan Levice53%
×Draw24%
Nové Zámky23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Levice
1.71
Nové Zámky
1.04

Slovan Levice creates 64% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Slovan Levice
1.12
Nové Zámky
0.80

allows per match

Slovan Levice
1.29
Nové Zámky
2.30

finishing

Slovan Levice+0.00on par
Nové Zámky+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Levice ↓

Nové Zámky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slovan Levice or draw
77%
Slovan Levice or Nové Zámky
76%
Draw or Nové Zámky
47%

Winning margin

Slovan Levice wins by 2+
29%
Nové Zámky wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Slovan Levice 1+ goals
82%
Slovan Levice 2+ goals
51%
Slovan Levice 3+ goals
24%
Nové Zámky 1+ goals
65%
Nové Zámky 2+ goals
28%
Nové Zámky 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slovan Levice (draw refunded)
70%
Nové Zámky (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Levice at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Nové Zámky away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.30 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Levice attack 1.12 + Nové Zámky defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.71

Nové Zámky attack 0.80 + Slovan Levice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slovan Levice scores more
53%
level
24%
Nové Zámky scores more
23%

Slovan Levice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slovan Levice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Levice vs Nové Zámky

Slovan Levice beat Nové Zámky 3-2 in 3. liga - West on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Levice in Levice.