Nové Zámky 3–0 Slovan Levice: Result & Stats

Nové Zámky

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Slovan Levice

5/25/2022

3. liga - West · West - 34Štadión Ladislava Gancznera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nové Zámky67%

×Draw18%

Slovan Levice15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nové ZámkyExpected goals in this matchSlovan Levice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.07

Nové Zámky

2.43

Slovan Levice

1.07

Nové Zámky creates 127% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.51

creates per match

0.47

1.68

allows per match

3.35

creates per match

Nové Zámky

1.51

Slovan Levice

0.47

allows per match

Nové Zámky

1.68

Slovan Levice

3.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nové Zámky+0.00on par

Slovan Levice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky ↓

Slovan Levice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Nové Zámky or draw

85%

Nové Zámky or Slovan Levice

82%

Draw or Slovan Levice

33%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky wins by 2+

45%

Slovan Levice wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nové Zámky 1+ goals

91%

Nové Zámky 2+ goals

69%

Nové Zámky 3+ goals

43%

Slovan Levice 1+ goals

66%

Slovan Levice 2+ goals

29%

Slovan Levice 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky (draw refunded)

82%

Slovan Levice (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Slovan Levice away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky attack 1.51 + Slovan Levice defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.43

Slovan Levice attack 0.47 + Nové Zámky defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Nové Zámky scores more

67%

level

18%

Slovan Levice scores more

15%

Nové Zámky at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Nové Zámky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff