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Slovan Levice vs Nitra — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Levice
Slovan Levice
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Nitra
Nitra
4/24/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 24Futbalový štadión Levice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Slovan Levice52%
×Draw23%
Nitra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Levice
1.82
Nitra
1.18

Slovan Levice creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Slovan Levice
1.12
Nitra
1.06

allows per match

Slovan Levice
1.29
Nitra
2.53

finishing

Slovan Levice+0.00on par
Nitra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Levice ↓

Nitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Slovan Levice or draw
75%
Slovan Levice or Nitra
77%
Draw or Nitra
48%

Winning margin

Slovan Levice wins by 2+
29%
Nitra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slovan Levice 1+ goals
84%
Slovan Levice 2+ goals
54%
Slovan Levice 3+ goals
27%
Nitra 1+ goals
69%
Nitra 2+ goals
33%
Nitra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Slovan Levice (draw refunded)
68%
Nitra (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Levice at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Nitra away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Levice attack 1.12 + Nitra defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.82

Nitra attack 1.06 + Slovan Levice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slovan Levice scores more
52%
level
23%
Nitra scores more
25%

Slovan Levice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slovan Levice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Slovan Levice 2–2 Nitra

Slovan Levice and Nitra drew 2-2 in 3. liga - West on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Levice in Levice.