Nitra 3–0 Slovan Levice: Result & Stats

Nitra

FT

3 – 0

Slovan Levice

9/18/2021

3. liga - West · West - 7Štadión pod Zoborom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nitra66%

×Draw18%

Slovan Levice16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NitraExpected goals in this matchSlovan Levice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.11

Nitra

2.44

Slovan Levice

1.11

Nitra creates 120% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.53

creates per match

0.47

1.76

allows per match

3.35

creates per match

Nitra

1.53

Slovan Levice

0.47

allows per match

Nitra

1.76

Slovan Levice

3.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nitra+0.00on par

Slovan Levice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra ↓

Slovan Levice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Nitra or draw

84%

Nitra or Slovan Levice

82%

Draw or Slovan Levice

34%

Winning margin

Nitra wins by 2+

44%

Slovan Levice wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nitra 1+ goals

91%

Nitra 2+ goals

70%

Nitra 3+ goals

43%

Slovan Levice 1+ goals

67%

Slovan Levice 2+ goals

30%

Slovan Levice 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nitra (draw refunded)

81%

Slovan Levice (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Slovan Levice away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra attack 1.53 + Slovan Levice defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.44

Slovan Levice attack 0.47 + Nitra defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Nitra scores more

66%

level

18%

Slovan Levice scores more

16%

Nitra at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Nitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff