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Slovan Levice vs Kalná nad Hronom — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Levice
Slovan Levice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
5/29/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29Futbalový štadión Levice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Slovan Levice41%
×Draw26%
Kalná nad Hronom33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Levice
1.37
Kalná nad Hronom
1.20

Slovan Levice creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Slovan Levice
1.12
Kalná nad Hronom
1.10

allows per match

Slovan Levice
1.29
Kalná nad Hronom
1.61

finishing

Slovan Levice+0.00on par
Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Levice ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Slovan Levice or draw
67%
Slovan Levice or Kalná nad Hronom
74%
Draw or Kalná nad Hronom
59%

Winning margin

Slovan Levice wins by 2+
19%
Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slovan Levice 1+ goals
75%
Slovan Levice 2+ goals
40%
Slovan Levice 3+ goals
16%
Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
70%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
34%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Slovan Levice (draw refunded)
55%
Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Levice at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Levice attack 1.12 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Slovan Levice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slovan Levice scores more
41%
level
26%
Kalná nad Hronom scores more
33%

Slovan Levice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slovan Levice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Levice vs Kalná nad Hronom

Slovan Levice beat Kalná nad Hronom 1-0 in 3. liga - West on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Levice in Levice.