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Kalná nad Hronom vs Slovan Levice — 3. liga - West 2020

Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
FT
1 – 0
Slovan Levice
Slovan Levice
10/23/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 12Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kalná nad Hronom73%
×Draw16%
Slovan Levice11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalná nad Hronom
2.50
Slovan Levice
0.84

Kalná nad Hronom creates 198% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.64
Slovan Levice
0.47

allows per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.21
Slovan Levice
3.35

finishing

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par
Slovan Levice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalná nad Hronom ↓

Slovan Levice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kalná nad Hronom or draw
89%
Kalná nad Hronom or Slovan Levice
84%
Draw or Slovan Levice
27%

Winning margin

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
51%
Slovan Levice wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
92%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
71%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
45%
Slovan Levice 1+ goals
57%
Slovan Levice 2+ goals
21%
Slovan Levice 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
87%
Slovan Levice (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalná nad Hronom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Slovan Levice away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.64 + Slovan Levice defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.50

Slovan Levice attack 0.47 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kalná nad Hronom scores more
73%
level
16%
Slovan Levice scores more
11%

Kalná nad Hronom at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kalná nad Hronom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalná nad Hronom vs Slovan Levice

Kalná nad Hronom beat Slovan Levice 1-0 in 3. liga - West on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom in Kalná nad Hronom.