Slovan Giraltovce 2–2 Slávia TU Košice

Slovan Giraltovce

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Slávia TU Košice

6/18/2022

3. liga - East · East - 30Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Slovan Giraltovce39%

×Draw26%

Slávia TU Košice35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan GiraltovceExpected goals in this matchSlávia TU Košice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.28

Slovan Giraltovce

1.38

Slávia TU Košice

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 66 away

1.24

creates per match

1.45

1.11

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Slovan Giraltovce

1.24

Slávia TU Košice

1.45

allows per match

Slovan Giraltovce

1.11

Slávia TU Košice

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Slávia TU Košice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Giraltovce ↓

Slávia TU Košice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Slovan Giraltovce or draw

65%

Slovan Giraltovce or Slávia TU Košice

74%

Draw or Slávia TU Košice

61%

Winning margin

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+

18%

Slávia TU Košice wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals

75%

Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals

40%

Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals

16%

Slávia TU Košice 1+ goals

72%

Slávia TU Košice 2+ goals

37%

Slávia TU Košice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)

53%

Slávia TU Košice (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Giraltovce at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Slávia TU Košice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Giraltovce attack 1.24 + Slávia TU Košice defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Slávia TU Košice attack 1.45 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slovan Giraltovce scores more

39%

level

26%

Slávia TU Košice scores more

35%

Slovan Giraltovce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slovan Giraltovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff