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Slávia TU Košice vs Slovan Giraltovce — 3. liga - East 2020

Slávia TU Košice
Slávia TU Košice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
10/16/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 11Štadión TU Watsonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Slávia TU Košice75%
×Draw16%
Slovan Giraltovce9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slávia TU Košice
2.48
Slovan Giraltovce
0.73

Slávia TU Košice creates 240% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 38 away

creates per match

Slávia TU Košice
2.63
Slovan Giraltovce
0.50

allows per match

Slávia TU Košice
0.97
Slovan Giraltovce
2.34

finishing

Slávia TU Košice+0.00on par
Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slávia TU Košice ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Slávia TU Košice or draw
91%
Slávia TU Košice or Slovan Giraltovce
84%
Draw or Slovan Giraltovce
25%

Winning margin

Slávia TU Košice wins by 2+
53%
Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Slávia TU Košice 1+ goals
92%
Slávia TU Košice 2+ goals
70%
Slávia TU Košice 3+ goals
44%
Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
52%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
17%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Slávia TU Košice (draw refunded)
89%
Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slávia TU Košice at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slávia TU Košice attack 2.63 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.48

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Slávia TU Košice defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Slávia TU Košice scores more
75%
level
16%
Slovan Giraltovce scores more
9%

Slávia TU Košice at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Slávia TU Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slávia TU Košice vs Slovan Giraltovce

Slávia TU Košice beat Slovan Giraltovce 2-1 in 3. liga - East on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión TU Watsonova in Košice.