Slovan Giraltovce 2–0 Novohrad Lučenec

Slovan Giraltovce

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Novohrad Lučenec

3/4/2023

3. liga - East · East - 16Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Slovan Giraltovce50%

×Draw25%

Novohrad Lučenec25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan GiraltovceExpected goals in this matchNovohrad Lučenec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.03

Slovan Giraltovce

1.58

Novohrad Lučenec

1.03

Slovan Giraltovce creates 53% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 44 away

1.24

creates per match

0.95

1.11

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Slovan Giraltovce

1.24

Novohrad Lučenec

0.95

allows per match

Slovan Giraltovce

1.11

Novohrad Lučenec

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Giraltovce ↓

Novohrad Lučenec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Slovan Giraltovce or draw

75%

Slovan Giraltovce or Novohrad Lučenec

75%

Draw or Novohrad Lučenec

50%

Winning margin

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+

26%

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals

79%

Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals

47%

Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals

21%

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals

64%

Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals

28%

Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)

67%

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Giraltovce at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Novohrad Lučenec away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Giraltovce attack 1.24 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.58

Novohrad Lučenec attack 0.95 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slovan Giraltovce scores more

50%

level

25%

Novohrad Lučenec scores more

25%

Slovan Giraltovce at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slovan Giraltovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff