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Novohrad Lučenec vs Slovan Giraltovce — 3. liga - East 2020

Novohrad Lučenec
Novohrad Lučenec
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
8/6/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 1Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Novohrad Lučenec59%
×Draw24%
Slovan Giraltovce18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novohrad Lučenec
1.73
Slovan Giraltovce
0.83

Novohrad Lučenec creates 108% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

creates per match

Novohrad Lučenec
1.11
Slovan Giraltovce
0.50

allows per match

Novohrad Lučenec
1.16
Slovan Giraltovce
2.34

finishing

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par
Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novohrad Lučenec ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Novohrad Lučenec or draw
82%
Novohrad Lučenec or Slovan Giraltovce
76%
Draw or Slovan Giraltovce
41%

Winning margin

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+
33%
Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals
82%
Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals
52%
Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals
25%
Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
56%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
20%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)
77%
Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novohrad Lučenec at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.11 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.73

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Novohrad Lučenec scores more
59%
level
24%
Slovan Giraltovce scores more
18%

Novohrad Lučenec at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Novohrad Lučenec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novohrad Lučenec vs Slovan Giraltovce

Novohrad Lučenec beat Slovan Giraltovce 3-1 in 3. liga - East on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lučenec.