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Slovan Giraltovce vs Milénium — 3. liga - East 2020

Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
CANC
13:30
Milénium
Milénium
4/3/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 19Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Slovan Giraltovce62%
×Draw21%
Milénium17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Giraltovce
2.00
Milénium
0.93

Slovan Giraltovce creates 115% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 8 away

creates per match

Slovan Giraltovce
1.24
Milénium
0.75

allows per match

Slovan Giraltovce
1.11
Milénium
2.75

finishing

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par
Milénium+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Giraltovce ↓

Milénium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Slovan Giraltovce or draw
83%
Slovan Giraltovce or Milénium
79%
Draw or Milénium
38%

Winning margin

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
38%
Milénium wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
86%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
59%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
32%
Milénium 1+ goals
61%
Milénium 2+ goals
24%
Milénium 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
79%
Milénium (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Giraltovce at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Milénium away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Giraltovce attack 1.24 + Milénium defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Milénium attack 0.75 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Slovan Giraltovce scores more
62%
level
21%
Milénium scores more
17%

Slovan Giraltovce at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Slovan Giraltovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slovan Giraltovce vs Milénium — Match Preview

Slovan Giraltovce face Milénium on April 3, 2021 in this 3. liga - East fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Slovan Giraltovce host Milénium at Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.