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Milénium vs Slovan Giraltovce — 3. liga - East 2020

Milénium
Milénium
FT
1 – 0
Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
8/16/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 4Futbalový štadión Bardejovská Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Milénium46%
×Draw23%
Slovan Giraltovce31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milénium
1.81
Slovan Giraltovce
1.47

Milénium creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 38 away

creates per match

Milénium
1.29
Slovan Giraltovce
0.50

allows per match

Milénium
2.43
Slovan Giraltovce
2.34

finishing

Milénium+0.00on par
Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milénium ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Milénium or draw
69%
Milénium or Slovan Giraltovce
77%
Draw or Slovan Giraltovce
54%

Winning margin

Milénium wins by 2+
25%
Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Milénium 1+ goals
84%
Milénium 2+ goals
54%
Milénium 3+ goals
27%
Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
77%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
43%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Milénium (draw refunded)
59%
Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milénium at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milénium attack 1.29 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.81

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Milénium defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Milénium scores more
46%
level
23%
Slovan Giraltovce scores more
31%

Milénium at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Milénium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Milénium 1–0 Slovan Giraltovce

Milénium beat Slovan Giraltovce 1-0 in 3. liga - East on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Bardejovská Nová Ves in Bardejov.