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Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Sereď — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
FT
0 – 0
Sereď
Sereď
4/22/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 23Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa44%
×Draw24%
Sereď32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.61
Sereď
1.35

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 19% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 46 away

creates per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.20
Sereď
1.46

allows per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.24
Sereď
1.02

finishing

Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par
Sereď+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Duslo Šaľa ↓

Sereď →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or draw
68%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa or Sereď
76%
Draw or Sereď
56%

Winning margin

Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
22%
Sereď wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
80%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
48%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
22%
Sereď 1+ goals
74%
Sereď 2+ goals
39%
Sereď 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
58%
Sereď (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Sereď away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 2.20 + Sereď defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sereď attack 1.46 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
44%
level
24%
Sereď scores more
32%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Slovan Duslo Šaľa 0–0 Sereď

Slovan Duslo Šaľa and Sereď drew 0-0 in 3. liga - West on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa in Šaľa.