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Sereď vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa — 3. liga - West 2020

Sereď
Sereď
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
11/5/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 14Štadión Sereď

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sereď60%
×Draw21%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sereď
2.05
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.06

Sereď creates 93% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

creates per match

Sereď
2.40
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.31

allows per match

Sereď
0.80
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.71

finishing

Sereď+0.00on par
Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sereď ↓

Slovan Duslo Šaľa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sereď or draw
81%
Sereď or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
79%
Draw or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
40%

Winning margin

Sereď wins by 2+
36%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sereď 1+ goals
87%
Sereď 2+ goals
61%
Sereď 3+ goals
33%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
65%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
29%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sereď (draw refunded)
76%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sereď at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sereď attack 2.40 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.05

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 1.31 + Sereď defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sereď scores more
60%
level
21%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
19%

Sereď at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sereď will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sereď vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Sereď beat Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3-1 in 3. liga - West on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Sereď in Sereď.