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Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Dubnica — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Dubnica
Dubnica
5/18/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 27Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa72%
×Draw16%
Dubnica12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.77
Dubnica
1.08

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 156% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.20
Dubnica
0.93

allows per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.24
Dubnica
3.33

finishing

Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Duslo Šaľa ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or draw
88%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa or Dubnica
84%
Draw or Dubnica
28%

Winning margin

Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
51%
Dubnica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
94%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
76%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
51%
Dubnica 1+ goals
66%
Dubnica 2+ goals
29%
Dubnica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
85%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Dubnica away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 2.20 + Dubnica defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.77

Dubnica attack 0.93 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
72%
level
16%
Dubnica scores more
12%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Dubnica

Slovan Duslo Šaľa beat Dubnica 6-1 in 3. liga - West on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa in Šaľa.