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Dubnica vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa — 3. liga - West 2020

Dubnica
Dubnica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
10/22/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 12Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dubnica27%
×Draw22%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubnica
1.35
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.92

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

creates per match

Dubnica
1.00
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.31

allows per match

Dubnica
2.53
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.71

finishing

Dubnica+0.00on par
Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubnica ↓

Slovan Duslo Šaľa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dubnica or draw
49%
Dubnica or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
78%
Draw or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
73%

Winning margin

Dubnica wins by 2+
12%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Dubnica 1+ goals
74%
Dubnica 2+ goals
39%
Dubnica 3+ goals
15%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
85%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
57%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Dubnica (draw refunded)
35%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubnica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubnica attack 1.00 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 1.31 + Dubnica defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dubnica scores more
27%
level
22%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
51%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubnica vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Dubnica beat Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2-1 in 3. liga - West on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica in Dubnica nad Váhom.