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Slovan Bratislava W vs Nitra W — I Liga - Women 2020

Slovan Bratislava W
Slovan Bratislava W
FT
4 – 0
Nitra W
Nitra W
10/31/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 12Umelá tráva Rapid Ružinov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slovan Bratislava W77%
×Draw12%
Nitra W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Bratislava W
3.63
Nitra W
1.38

Slovan Bratislava W creates 163% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 15 away

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava W
4.14
Nitra W
1.80

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava W
0.96
Nitra W
3.13

finishing

Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par
Nitra W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava W ↓

Nitra W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava W or draw
89%
Slovan Bratislava W or Nitra W
88%
Draw or Nitra W
23%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+
59%
Nitra W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals
97%
Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals
87%
Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals
68%
Nitra W 1+ goals
75%
Nitra W 2+ goals
40%
Nitra W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)
88%
Nitra W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava W at home — creates 4.14, concedes 0.96 · 69 matches

Nitra W away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava W attack 4.14 + Nitra W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 3.63

Nitra W attack 1.80 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Slovan Bratislava W scores more
77%
level
12%
Nitra W scores more
11%

Slovan Bratislava W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Bratislava W vs Nitra W

Slovan Bratislava W beat Nitra W 4-0 in I Liga - Women on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Umelá tráva Rapid Ružinov in Bratislava.