Nitra W 0–10 Slovan Bratislava W: Result & Stats

Nitra W

FT

0 – 10

Slovan Bratislava W

9/27/2020

I Liga - Women · Round 5Štadión pod Zoborom Vedľajšie Ihrisko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nitra W10%

×Draw12%

Slovan Bratislava W79%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nitra WExpected goals in this matchSlovan Bratislava W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

3.73

Nitra W

1.33

Slovan Bratislava W

3.73

Slovan Bratislava W creates 180% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 67 away

1.56

creates per match

3.58

3.88

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Nitra W

1.56

Slovan Bratislava W

3.58

allows per match

Nitra W

3.88

Slovan Bratislava W

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nitra W+0.00on par

Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra W ↓

Slovan Bratislava W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–36%

0–46%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Nitra W or draw

21%

Nitra W or Slovan Bratislava W

88%

Draw or Slovan Bratislava W

90%

Winning margin

Nitra W wins by 2+

4%

Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+

62%

Team goals

Nitra W 1+ goals

74%

Nitra W 2+ goals

38%

Nitra W 3+ goals

15%

Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals

97%

Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals

88%

Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals

69%

Draw no bet

Nitra W (draw refunded)

11%

Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.88 · 16 matches

Slovan Bratislava W away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.09 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra W attack 1.56 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Slovan Bratislava W attack 3.58 + Nitra W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 3.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Nitra W scores more

10%

level

12%

Slovan Bratislava W scores more

79%

Slovan Bratislava W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff