Slovan Bratislava W 7–1 GFC Topoľčany W

Slovan Bratislava W

FT

7 – 1

GFC Topoľčany W

3/9/2024

I Liga - Women · Round 16Umelá tráva Pasienky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Slovan Bratislava W86%

×Draw9%

GFC Topoľčany W6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Bratislava WExpected goals in this matchGFC Topoľčany W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.07

1.07

Slovan Bratislava W

4.07

GFC Topoľčany W

1.07

Slovan Bratislava W creates 280% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 26 away

4.14

creates per match

1.19

0.96

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava W

4.14

GFC Topoľčany W

1.19

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava W

0.96

GFC Topoľčany W

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par

GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava W ↓

GFC Topoľčany W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–18%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava W or draw

94%

Slovan Bratislava W or GFC Topoľčany W

91%

Draw or GFC Topoľčany W

14%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+

71%

GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals

98%

Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals

90%

Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals

74%

GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals

66%

GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals

29%

GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)

94%

GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava W at home — creates 4.14, concedes 0.96 · 69 matches

GFC Topoľčany W away — creates 1.19, concedes 4.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava W attack 4.14 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 4.07

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.19 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Slovan Bratislava W scores more

86%

level

9%

GFC Topoľčany W scores more

6%

Slovan Bratislava W at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff