GFC Topoľčany W 3–0 Slovan Bratislava W

GFC Topoľčany W

FT

3 – 0

Slovan Bratislava W

9/30/2023

I Liga - Women · Round 7Futbalové ihrisko OFK Tesáre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

GFC Topoľčany W19%

×Draw18%

Slovan Bratislava W63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GFC Topoľčany WExpected goals in this matchSlovan Bratislava W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.56

GFC Topoľčany W

1.35

Slovan Bratislava W

2.56

Slovan Bratislava W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 67 away

1.62

creates per match

3.58

1.54

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

GFC Topoľčany W

1.62

Slovan Bratislava W

3.58

allows per match

GFC Topoľčany W

1.54

Slovan Bratislava W

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFC Topoľčany W ↓

Slovan Bratislava W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

GFC Topoľčany W or draw

37%

GFC Topoľčany W or Slovan Bratislava W

82%

Draw or Slovan Bratislava W

81%

Winning margin

GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+

8%

Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals

74%

GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals

39%

GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals

15%

Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals

92%

Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals

72%

Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)

23%

Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFC Topoľčany W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Slovan Bratislava W away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.09 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.62 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Slovan Bratislava W attack 3.58 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

GFC Topoľčany W scores more

19%

level

18%

Slovan Bratislava W scores more

63%

Slovan Bratislava W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff