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Slovan Bratislava vs KI Klaksvik — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Slovan Bratislava
Slovan Bratislava
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KI Klaksvik
KI Klaksvik
9/21/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 1Štadión Tehelné pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Slovan Bratislava46%
×Draw26%
KI Klaksvik28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Bratislava
1.45
KI Klaksvik
1.07

Slovan Bratislava creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava
1.23
KI Klaksvik
1.00

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava
1.15
KI Klaksvik
1.67

finishing

Slovan Bratislava+0.00on par
KI Klaksvik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava ↓

KI Klaksvik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava or draw
72%
Slovan Bratislava or KI Klaksvik
74%
Draw or KI Klaksvik
54%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava wins by 2+
22%
KI Klaksvik wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava 1+ goals
77%
Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals
42%
Slovan Bratislava 3+ goals
18%
KI Klaksvik 1+ goals
66%
KI Klaksvik 2+ goals
29%
KI Klaksvik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava (draw refunded)
62%
KI Klaksvik (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

KI Klaksvik away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava attack 1.23 + KI Klaksvik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.45

KI Klaksvik attack 1.00 + Slovan Bratislava defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slovan Bratislava scores more
46%
level
26%
KI Klaksvik scores more
28%

Slovan Bratislava at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Bratislava vs KI Klaksvik

Slovan Bratislava beat KI Klaksvik 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Tehelné pole in Bratislava.