KI Klaksvik 1–2 Slovan Bratislava: Result & Stats

KI Klaksvik

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Slovan Bratislava

11/30/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 5Tórsvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

KI Klaksvik54%

×Draw26%

Slovan Bratislava20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KI KlaksvikExpected goals in this matchSlovan Bratislava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.81

KI Klaksvik

1.52

Slovan Bratislava

0.81

KI Klaksvik creates 88% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

1.50

creates per match

1.13

0.50

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

KI Klaksvik

1.50

Slovan Bratislava

1.13

allows per match

KI Klaksvik

0.50

Slovan Bratislava

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KI Klaksvik+0.00on par

Slovan Bratislava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KI Klaksvik ↓

Slovan Bratislava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

KI Klaksvik or draw

80%

KI Klaksvik or Slovan Bratislava

74%

Draw or Slovan Bratislava

46%

Winning margin

KI Klaksvik wins by 2+

28%

Slovan Bratislava wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

KI Klaksvik 1+ goals

78%

KI Klaksvik 2+ goals

45%

KI Klaksvik 3+ goals

20%

Slovan Bratislava 1+ goals

56%

Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals

19%

Slovan Bratislava 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

KI Klaksvik (draw refunded)

73%

Slovan Bratislava (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KI Klaksvik at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Slovan Bratislava away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KI Klaksvik attack 1.50 + Slovan Bratislava defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Slovan Bratislava attack 1.13 + KI Klaksvik defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KI Klaksvik scores more

54%

level

26%

Slovan Bratislava scores more

20%

KI Klaksvik at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "KI Klaksvik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff