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Slovan Bratislava vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — League #332 2026

Slovan Bratislava
Slovan Bratislava
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
8/5/2023League #332League #332 · Round 2Štadión Tehelné pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Slovan Bratislava53%
×Draw23%
Dukla Banská Bystrica24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Bratislava
1.82
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.16

Slovan Bratislava creates 57% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava
2.00
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.07

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava
1.25
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.64

finishing

Slovan Bratislava+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava or draw
76%
Slovan Bratislava or Dukla Banská Bystrica
77%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica
47%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava wins by 2+
30%
Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava 1+ goals
84%
Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals
54%
Slovan Bratislava 3+ goals
27%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
69%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
32%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava (draw refunded)
68%
Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava attack 2.00 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.07 + Slovan Bratislava defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slovan Bratislava scores more
53%
level
23%
Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
24%

Slovan Bratislava at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #332: Slovan Bratislava 2–2 Dukla Banská Bystrica

Slovan Bratislava and Dukla Banská Bystrica drew 2-2 in League #332 on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Tehelné pole in Bratislava.