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Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Slovan Bratislava — League #332 2026

Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Slovan Bratislava
Slovan Bratislava
11/4/2023League #332League #332 · Round 13Štadión SNP Štiavničky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica13%
×Draw18%
Slovan Bratislava69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Banská Bystrica
0.92
Slovan Bratislava
2.33

Slovan Bratislava creates 153% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.27
Slovan Bratislava
2.29

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica
2.36
Slovan Bratislava
0.57

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par
Slovan Bratislava+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

Slovan Bratislava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw
31%
Dukla Banská Bystrica or Slovan Bratislava
82%
Draw or Slovan Bratislava
87%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
4%
Slovan Bratislava wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
60%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
23%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
7%
Slovan Bratislava 1+ goals
90%
Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals
67%
Slovan Bratislava 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
16%
Slovan Bratislava (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

Slovan Bratislava away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.27 + Slovan Bratislava defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.92

Slovan Bratislava attack 2.29 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
13%
level
18%
Slovan Bratislava scores more
69%

Slovan Bratislava at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Slovan Bratislava

Slovan Bratislava beat Dukla Banská Bystrica 4-1 in League #332 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión SNP Štiavničky in Banská Bystrica.