Slovan Bratislava 4–2 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Slovan Bratislava

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Beşiktaş

Mohammed Rharsalla 90+4'

M. Ljubičić 90+3'

A. Šporar 58', 14'

V. Bozhikov 45+1' (OG)

A. Ljajić 29' (pen)

9/19/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 1Národný Futbalový Štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Slovan Bratislava54%

×Draw21%

Beşiktaş24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan BratislavaExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.30

Slovan Bratislava

2.04

Beşiktaş

1.30

Slovan Bratislava creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.60

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava

1.50

Beşiktaş

1.00

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava

1.60

Beşiktaş

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Bratislava+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava or draw

76%

Slovan Bratislava or Beşiktaş

79%

Draw or Beşiktaş

46%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava wins by 2+

32%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava 1+ goals

87%

Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals

60%

Slovan Bratislava 3+ goals

33%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

73%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

37%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava (draw refunded)

69%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava attack 1.50 + Beşiktaş defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Beşiktaş attack 1.00 + Slovan Bratislava defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Slovan Bratislava scores more

54%

level

21%

Beşiktaş scores more

24%

Slovan Bratislava at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Ljubičić

Slovan Bratislava · M

8.4

Match Events

8'

Víctor Ruiz

14'

A. Šporar

28'

Joeri de Kamps

29'

A. LjajićPenalty

37'

Adem Ljajić

45+1'

V. BozhikovOwn goal

58'

A. Šporar

74'

A. Hutchinson← Víctor Ruíz

76'

E. Daniel← D. Dražić

79'

J. Lens← A. Diaby

82'

M. Ljubičić← J. de Kamps

82'

G. Yalçın← G. NKoudou

84'

Marin Ljubicic

89'

K. Bajrič← I. Rabiu

90+3'

M. Ljubičić↳ A. Šporar

90+4'

Mohammed Rharsalla↳ M. Ljubičić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlovanBeşiktaş

Overview

28%Possession72%

16Total Shots13

2Corners10

10Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots13

6On Target4

6Off Target5

4Blocked4

12Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

28%Possession72%

273Total Passes697

208Accurate Passes628

76%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2