Beşiktaş 2–1 Slovan Bratislava: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Slovan Bratislava

A. Ljajić 90+2' (pen)

E. Roco 75'

E. Daniel 35'

11/28/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 5Vodafone Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beşiktaş36%

×Draw23%

Slovan Bratislava41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchSlovan Bratislava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.74

Beşiktaş

1.60

Slovan Bratislava

1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

1.60

1.88

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Beşiktaş

1.50

Slovan Bratislava

1.60

allows per match

Beşiktaş

1.88

Slovan Bratislava

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Slovan Bratislava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Slovan Bratislava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

59%

Beşiktaş or Slovan Bratislava

77%

Draw or Slovan Bratislava

64%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

17%

Slovan Bratislava wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

80%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

47%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

22%

Slovan Bratislava 1+ goals

82%

Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals

52%

Slovan Bratislava 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

46%

Slovan Bratislava (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Slovan Bratislava away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.50 + Slovan Bratislava defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

Slovan Bratislava attack 1.60 + Beşiktaş defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

36%

level

23%

Slovan Bratislava scores more

41%

Slovan Bratislava at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

E. Roco

Beşiktaş · D

8.3

Match Events

30'

Joeri de Kamps

35'

E. Daniel↳ Vernon

46'

G. N'Koudou← T. Boyd

46'

A. Ljajić← Pedro Rebocho

53'

61'

63'

74'

75'

76'

G. Yalçın← O. Özyakup

76'

D. Dražić← Mohammed Rharsalla

78'

Ibrahim Rabiu

81'

Mohamed Elneny

83'

M. Ljubičić← D. Holman

86'

Rafael Ratão← E. Daniel

90'

Adem Ljajić

90'

Myenty Abena

90+2'

A. LjajićPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeşiktaşSlovan

Overview

65%Possession35%

19Total Shots7

5Corners2

11Fouls21

Shots

19Total Shots7

6On Target3

8Off Target3

5Blocked1

15Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

592Total Passes311

511Accurate Passes225

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls21

5Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1