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Slovakia vs Wales — Friendlies 2026

Slovakia
Slovakia
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wales
Wales
L. Bénes 90'
E. Ampadu 60' (OG)
R. Boženík 56'
J. Kucka 45'
6/9/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Slovakia74%
×Draw19%
Wales7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovakia
1.93
Wales
0.43

Slovakia creates 349% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Slovakia
2.08
Wales
0.11

allows per match

Slovakia
0.75
Wales
1.78

finishing

Slovakia+0.00on par
Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia ↓

Wales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Slovakia or draw
93%
Slovakia or Wales
81%
Draw or Wales
26%

Winning margin

Slovakia wins by 2+
47%
Wales wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Slovakia 1+ goals
85%
Slovakia 2+ goals
57%
Slovakia 3+ goals
30%
Wales 1+ goals
35%
Wales 2+ goals
7%
Wales 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Slovakia (draw refunded)
91%
Wales (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Wales away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia attack 2.08 + Wales defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.93

Wales attack 0.11 + Slovakia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Slovakia scores more
74%
level
19%
Wales scores more
7%

Slovakia at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Slovakia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
J. KuckaSlovakiaSlovakia · M
7.7

Match Events

45'
J. Kucka↳ L. Haraslín
56'
R. Boženík↳ D. Hancko
60'
W. Burns← B. Johnson
60'
L. Koumas← N. Broadhead
60'
E. AmpaduOwn goal
71'
T. Suslov← I. Schranz
71'
L. Bénes← O. Duda
71'
A. Obert← D. Hancko
71'
L. Cullen← D. James
77'
V. De Marco← D. Vavro
78'
Ľ. Tupta← R. Boženík
80'
Kieffer Moore
82'
M. Bero← J. Kucka
84'
Matúš Bero
85'
Jordan James
90'
L. Bénes

Possession

59%Slovakia

Shots

14Slovakia

Pass accuracy

51%Slovakia

Statistics

SlovakiaWales
Overview
59%Possession41%
14Total Shots8
8Corners4
13Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots8
8On Target2
3Off Target3
3Blocked3
7Inside Box5
7Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
609Total Passes418
554Accurate Passes369
91%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Friendlies: Slovakia 4–0 Wales

Slovakia beat Wales 4-0 in Friendlies on June 9, 2024.

Goals: J. Kucka (45'), R. Boženík (56'), E. Ampadu (60' o.g.), L. Bénes (90').

Slovakia controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského in Trnava.