Slovakia 1–1 Wales: Result & Stats

Slovakia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wales

J. Kucka 53'

K. Moore 25'

10/10/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 7City Arena Trnava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Slovakia33%

×Draw29%

Wales38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlovakiaExpected goals in this matchWales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.18

Slovakia

1.08

Wales

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.17

creates per match

0.86

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Slovakia

1.17

Wales

0.86

allows per match

Slovakia

1.50

Wales

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovakia+0.00on par

Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia ↓

Wales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Slovakia or draw

62%

Slovakia or Wales

71%

Draw or Wales

67%

Winning margin

Slovakia wins by 2+

13%

Wales wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Slovakia 1+ goals

66%

Slovakia 2+ goals

29%

Slovakia 3+ goals

10%

Wales 1+ goals

69%

Wales 2+ goals

33%

Wales 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Slovakia (draw refunded)

47%

Wales (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Wales away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia attack 1.17 + Wales defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Wales attack 0.86 + Slovakia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slovakia scores more

33%

level

29%

Wales scores more

38%

Wales at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

K. Moore

Wales · F

7.8

Match Events

15'

25'

33'

50'

51'

53'

58'

J. Morrell← E. Ampadu

66'

H. Wilson← J. Williams

79'

L. Haraslín← R. Mak

86'

P. Šafranko← R. Boženík

88'

Norbert Gyömbér

88'

Norbert Gyömbér

90'

Daniel James

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlovakiaWales

Overview

69%Possession31%

13Total Shots15

5Corners5

9Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots15

4On Target6

5Off Target6

4Blocked3

8Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

588Total Passes250

513Accurate Passes180

87%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

5Offsides2