Slovakia 1–0 Estonia: Result & Stats

Slovakia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estonia

D. Strelec 72'

11/19/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 6CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Slovakia38%

×Draw29%

Estonia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlovakiaExpected goals in this matchEstonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.07

Slovakia

1.17

Estonia

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

0.89

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Slovakia

1.33

Estonia

0.89

allows per match

Slovakia

1.25

Estonia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovakia+0.00on par

Estonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovakia ↓

Estonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Slovakia or draw

67%

Slovakia or Estonia

71%

Draw or Estonia

62%

Winning margin

Slovakia wins by 2+

16%

Estonia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Slovakia 1+ goals

69%

Slovakia 2+ goals

33%

Slovakia 3+ goals

11%

Estonia 1+ goals

66%

Estonia 2+ goals

29%

Estonia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Slovakia (draw refunded)

54%

Estonia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovakia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Estonia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovakia attack 1.33 + Estonia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Estonia attack 0.89 + Slovakia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slovakia scores more

38%

level

29%

Estonia scores more

33%

Slovakia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Slovakia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

K. Hein

Estonia · G

8.9

Match Events

46'

D. Strelec← R. Boženík

60'

P. Hrošovský← S. Lobotka

60'

L. Sauer← Ľ. Tupta

60'

R. Shein← M. Poom

61'

Joseph Saliste

71'

D. Kuraksin← V. Sinyavskiy

71'

R. Peetson← J. Saliste

71'

M. Vetkal← P. Kristal

72'

D. Strelec

77'

I. Schranz← T. Suslov

87'

88'

90+4'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlovakiaEstonia

Overview

52%Possession48%

26Total Shots6

9Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

26Total Shots6

12On Target0

8Off Target2

6Blocked4

17Inside Box4

9Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

487Total Passes460

427Accurate Passes386

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves11

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2