Estonia 0–1 Slovakia: Result & Stats

Estonia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slovakia

T. Suslov 70'

9/5/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 1A. Le Coq Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Estonia36%

×Draw30%

Slovakia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstoniaExpected goals in this matchSlovakia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.01

Estonia

1.05

Slovakia

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.10

creates per match

0.82

1.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Estonia

1.10

Slovakia

0.82

allows per match

Estonia

1.20

Slovakia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estonia+0.00on par

Slovakia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia ↓

Slovakia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Estonia or draw

66%

Estonia or Slovakia

70%

Draw or Slovakia

64%

Winning margin

Estonia wins by 2+

14%

Slovakia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Estonia 1+ goals

65%

Estonia 2+ goals

28%

Estonia 3+ goals

9%

Slovakia 1+ goals

64%

Slovakia 2+ goals

27%

Slovakia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Estonia (draw refunded)

51%

Slovakia (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Slovakia away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia attack 1.10 + Slovakia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Slovakia attack 0.82 + Estonia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Estonia scores more

36%

level

30%

Slovakia scores more

34%

Estonia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Estonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Bénes

Slovakia · M

8.3

Match Events

28'

38'

55'

65'

65'

D. Strelec← R. Boženík

69'

M. Vetkal← A. Tamm

69'

K. Palumets← M. Ainsalu

70'

T. Suslov

78'

I. Yakovlev← M. Miller

83'

M. Bero← L. Bénes

83'

T. Rigo← O. Duda

84'

R. Saarma← V. Sinyavskiy

87'

90'

90+6'

90+5'

90+2'

N. Gyömbér← P. Pekarík

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstoniaSlovakia

Overview

39%Possession61%

6Total Shots25

1Corners7

13Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots25

3On Target6

3Off Target10

0Blocked9

4Inside Box14

2Outside Box11

Passing

39%Possession61%

366Total Passes575

278Accurate Passes487

76%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0